Artificial Intelligence in Urban Planning: Risks and Opportunities - AcSS Policy Briefing
Ulrich Graute • 21 June 2024
IAG Briefing Series
This briefing series by the International Advisory Group of the Academy of Social Sciences of the United Kingdom seeks to bring an international dimension to the Academy’s policy positions and identify interdisciplinary solutions to complex challenges facing society from a global standpoint.
Overview
Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents global societal challenges for researchers and policymakers. Machines have long been shown to be beneficial where their actions can be expected to achieve the objectives sought by human beings and not by machines with minds of their own. The goal for AI research is to create a system that requires no problem-specific engineering but can be assigned to carry out tasks such as teaching a molecular biology class or running a government.
Given the highly complex, multi-stakeholder dialogue and decision-making processes involved, the application of AI in the context of urban planning is of particular interest for researchers from a wide range of hybrid disciplines spanning physical and human geography, political economy, public administration, socio-legal studies, social policy and anthropology. The territory of cities is the stage where developments leave their physical footprint. Properly planned urban development requires an integrative and participatory decision-making process that addresses competing interests and is linked to a shared vision, an overall development strategy and national, regional and local urban policies. In practice, this is a continuous and iterative process, facilitating and articulating political decisions based on different scenarios and translating those decisions into actions that will transform the physical and social space and support the development of integrated cities and territories.
Throughout the urban planning process, each of the many persons and institutions affected by a plan may pursue their own interests, their priorities may shift, new issues and policies may emerge, and
actors may join constellations with specific motivations, interests and capabilities. Nobody in the process is likely to have full information, and no single person is 100 per cent rational in his or her perceptions and actions. Very little knowledge is certain, especially regarding the future. These limitations make planning a complex enterprise. They explain why its processes often generate suboptimal results, why constant reviewing of plans is necessary, and why the authors of the International Guidelines on Urban and territorial Planning IGUTP understand urban and territorial planning ultimately as a continuous and iterative decision-making process. The hope is now that AI tools can help to develop and implement better urban plans and ultimately increase the quality of life in cities. But urban planners also ask: should AI be seen just a technical tool, a digital twin, or could AI even become a controlling factor co-piloting city planning?
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Key evidence
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Currently, no general-purpose AI urban planning programme exists that does everything. Instead, developers are building and experimenting with different types of agent programmes designed to address different types of problems. Three scenarios can be identified to describe the positioning of AI in future urban planning:
- Urban planning by AI increases control over life in cities: In the worst-case scenario, AI will be programmed to ignore the objectives and preferences of citizens. By targeting the lowest common denominator, it may instead lead to lower standards of quality of life and levels of urban sustainability, while surveillance and control might be added to the objectives of AI applications as major planning objectives, threatening to reduce or destroy freedoms of citizens.
- AI serves as a technical tool and assistant for planners: This second configuration is often presented as the preferred scenario. Here, AI is strictly limited to functioning as a technical tool without power over humans, with AI applications filling data gaps and writing intelligent concept papers that generate problem trees and shorten the time needed to generate ideas. AI applications are given access to all applicable national and local visions, policies, laws, rules and regulations, including building codes, design guidelines, the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, the objectives of stakeholders and budgetary information, as well as best practice cases from other cities. Based on this cumulative body of knowledge, AI applications can, and increasingly often already do, generate design proposals, and textual descriptions of plans. They may even suggest how to reconcile competing interests, making it difficult to tell whether they are created by a human being or by AI.
- AI serves as a digital twin providing planners with alternative options: Machines may be far more capable than humans but are likely to remain far from perfect. AI as a digital twin can support planning departments to keep processes on track. However, if humans put the wrong objectives into a machine that is able to learn and is more intelligent than they are, it will achieve the objective regardless of any unwanted and unintended consequences. As planners get used to data and recommendations from AI, it can gradually gain influence over humans and become a co-pilot or at least a digital twin in planning rather than being treated as a tool.
Policy contexts
In urban planning, the process takes years from the development of operational plans through to their implementation and evaluation. We are only beginning to understand generative AI’s capabilities and risks; the long-term impact on AI on the entire process remains to be seen. But our three scenarios have already been adopted by urban planners in advanced societies across three categories: sceptics who are cautious and largely opposed to the development of new technologies; optimists who are convinced that AI will be beneficial if used exclusively as technical tools unable to gain control over humans; and realists who are interested in the benefits of AI but who are also aware of the risks.
The success or otherwise of the introduction of new technologies is found to be dependent on a mix of contextual factors. Not every city has the best equipped planning department or the technical resources for sound planning. This situation often arises in fast-urbanising countries in the Global South, in cities with high numbers of foreign refugees or internally displaced persons. In addition, the degree of authority for urban planning delegated to cities varies a lot between countries and even where provision for AI exists, political decision-makers may use them as a political tool by including biases or discriminatory patterns in their outcomes.
Recommendations
AI researchers are predicting that AI will progressively penetrate all spheres of life. Research into the most effective use and the impacts of AI in the urban planning process remains at an early stage, and no final conclusions are available. To prepare for the challenges and risks associated with AI:
- Social scientists, politicians and the general public must be prepared to anticipate and adapt to the impact of AI on whole societies and political systems.
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- Planners need to explore risks and opportunities of AI applications as technical tools, and as co-pilots that are capable of gaining influence over perceptions and actions of humans, or of becoming a dominant tool for the control of cities and citizens’ lives.
- Citizens need to be given insights into planning and decision-making processes beginning with the way objectives and preferences are programmed into machines.
- Given the magnitude, complexity and interrelatedness of the challenges facing society, researchers must prevent a new culture war with Luddites wrecking learning machines.
- Instead, scientists and policymakers across the world should learn how to use wisely- governed AI to increase the much-needed problem-solving capacity of cities and beyond.
Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions
On 28 January, the American Planning Association (APA) launched the fifth Trend Report for Planners. One of the strengths of the Report is that the trends are structured within three timeframes (Act Now, Prepare, Learn, and Watch), which indicate the urgency of planners' actions. Within each timeframe, trends are grouped into themed clusters. For each trend, the report gives insights and explains why it is important for planners to know about and consider the trend in their work. The Future of Planning requires embracing uncertainty. Planning was and is always linked to uncertainties. However, the Report is linked to the current specific multiple crises developments from climate to AI, Trump policies, geopolitical challenges, and the fact that policies leave many people behind. Looking more specifically at AI, I agree with the position that the intensifying bonds between humans and Chatbots are a trend where action is needed now. The Report also describes the need to prepare for policy shifts not working: "Fears of technology taking our jobs have been persistent through time, and the recent adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is no exception. Nearly one-third of U.S. workers believe that AI will reduce jobs in the future, and while some studies haven’t found significant disruption by AI in the labor market, the available data have limitations. Moreover, other research has found that while certain jobs have been insulated from AI thus far, early-career". Isn't this an area where not only preparation but also acting now is needed? The Report suggests embracing uncertainty and updating the planner’s toolkit. The Report is an excellent read. I highly recommend it. There is only one caveat: With so much about (often interrelated and interdependent) uncertainties for cities, economies, society, and individuals, I miss a more integrated foresight on urban and rural life of the future. Will cities look the same? How to ensure, in hybrid planning processes, that AI doesn't substitute our human objectives with its own? We are learning a lot about the parts shaping our future, but the traditional strength of planners to plan for integrated and inclusive human settlements still needs to be demonstrated, e.g., by describing based on foresight data scenarios and narratives of cities in a possible age of AI. Integrated narratives are necessary to inspire and motivate citizens and planners. In its conclusion, the Report summarises: "Although the future may feel uncertain, it also holds significant promise. Addressing complex global and local challenges will require innovation, creativity, and collaboration. Social and technological advances offer powerful opportunities to prepare and be ready—if they are applied thoughtfully, equitably, and sustainably." Please download your copy of the APA-Report
The International Association for Safe & Ethical AI (IASEAI) is one of the most important new foundations in the field of AI. Its mission is "to ensure that AI systems operate safely and ethically, benefiting all of humanity. We connect experts from academia, policy groups, civil society, industry, and beyond to promote research, shape policy, and build understanding around this goal." The International Association for Safe and Ethical Artificial Intelligence, Inc. aims to build a global movement. IASEAI will host its second annual conference (IASEAIΚΌ26) on 24-26 February 2026 at UNESCO House in Paris, France. (Here is the link https://lnkd.in/d8Yfiwg7). The aim is to advance its mission of fostering a global, interdisciplinary community focused on the safe and ethical development of AI. By bringing together experts from various domains, we aim to facilitate dialogue, share knowledge, and foster partnerships that can collectively address the challenges and opportunities posed by AI. I am looking forward to attending the conference, which will include these featured speakers: π Yoshua Bengio - Full Professor, Department of Computer Science and Operations Research, Université de Montréal π Geoffrey Hinton- Prof. Emeritus, University of Toronto; Former VP and Engineering Fellow, Google; Nobel laureate (physics, 2024) π Stuart Russell - Dist. Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Berkeley π Joseph Stiglitz - Prof. of Economics, Columbia University; Nobel laureate (economics, 2001) π Anna Salomons - Prof. of Law, Economics, and Governance, Utrecht University π Tara Steele - Founder and CEO, Safe AI for Children Alliance π Clara Chappaz - Ambassador, France for AI and Digital Affairs π Anne-Sophie SERET - Executive Director, everyone.ai π Ryan James - Chief Strategy Officer, Keep AI Safe Foundation The conference brings together technical, policy, and ethics researchers from academia, government, civil society, and industry. Of course, as a young organization, IASEAI may not yet cover all relevant aspects and groups. However, I miss a stronger attention to the specific urban dimension. After all, most AI companies are based in urban areas, and most people nowadays live in cities. If major disruption, unemployment, and unrest should occur due to AI, it is likely to happen in cities. City leaders and citizens will be challenged to coordinate and plan for the future of urban living in an age of AI. Thus, it is a bit surprising that urban stakeholders, so important for a global movement, will not be more strongly addressed by IASEAI. But I am confident that the discussions in Paris will raise awareness that building a global movement for safe and ethical AI needs to include city and business leaders, local AI, citizen engagement, and their advocacy at the national level.
Like any other big conference the 61st World Planning Congress of ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia was complex, putting organizers under stress. But I must admit, the Congress in Riyadh was also different. Dr. Nadine Bitar Chahine and I made a perfect team of GRs, General Rapporteurs. Moments where we met in Riyadh to discuss problems were rare and stress came up only when the Riyadh Declaration was revised last minute. As I recall, we had no single work meeting and certainly no night sessions during the Congress. But the content programme of the Congress rolled out smoothly. Certainly, this is also due to other teams working hard, but as General Rapporteurs responsible for the content of the program it could have been very different. Root cause of our performance was that we at an early stage defined our single most important goal 'Making the Congress a success'. Easy as it sounds, it was often difficult to defend our understanding of what would make the Congress successful. But we didn't act as a block against others. Instead, at the preparatory in-person content meeting in Riyadh two months before the Congress we were not even sitting next to each other. We learned to rely and trust each other. In addition, we empowered the Congress Team. Prepared by us and highly motivated as they came to Riyadh, track teams worked perfectly without too much support or supervision. Well, and being able to rely on the work of the Congress Team and Secretariat we found time to attend sessions, discuss content of the Congress and have a lot of fun together as team and with others. That's how it works if a Society is member-led. Practically, we were working in parallel without loosing connection and mutual understanding. If you see these days posts commented by Nadine on behalf of both GRs, in most cases they were not discussed between us, but I agree on all of them. And in some of my posts the same happens in reverse. If our intuition shouldn't work perfectly at some point we briefly synchronise and go on. Since the Congress is over now, the peak of this perfectly tuned cooperation comes to the end. Thank you, thank you Nadine for a great year of cooperation. It will be difficult to repeat this perfect cooperation but let's try. Yours sincerely, Ulrich
ISOCARP ScientificCommittee 2023-2025 Activity Report 7 December2025
As the book "City Economies In The Global South: Growth, Inclusion, and Sustainability" of which I am one of the co-authors is being reviewed for publication by Routledge, we requested the publisher and they have agreed to include photographs on the cover page (1) and for the section dividers (5). Being an international publication, INHAF, the Indian habitat Forum, felt that nothing less than world class photographs will do. As such, INHAF has launched an international photography competition to be curated by none less than the renowned international photographer Raghu Rai. The competition was launched on 15th November through social media. We are also mailing potential participants - Indian and International Institutes and Organizations - pertaining to arts, media, journalism, and photography. Please find below the links for the poster and brochure for the competition. We request you to kindly circulate it in your circles so as to gain global reach and ensure widespread participation. The earlier mail containing the attachments was too large and could not be delivered to some recipients and hence I am resending the mail with the links instead: Poster: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jx5bgzvOCCiHvTUfi9tHotMwQ627p1cl/view?usp=drive_link Brochure: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i-LFqPmkLwQEv-fKThxxh-IbsKzOtZkM/view?usp=drive_link
The annual Smart City Expo World Congress in Barcelona, S pain with its about 30000 participants is famous for its data and tech-orientations. There you can see drones flying and robots walk up and down the aisles. Definitely, technology and increasingly also artificial intelligence are important components of Smart Cities. However, looking closer you see that behind the technology it’s people who make cities really smart. Just to give a few examples: In New Orleans, Kim Walker LaGrue is Chief Information Officer and she described how she and her team work without much support from the federal government all year round to prepare, go through and follow up to the hurricane seasons. They embrace all data they can get but what really helps are fast reacting teams on the ground that evacuate and rescue people if needed. Dr. Sarah Hill works at the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh on subject related to new urban development and brings in her international experience from new city developments e.g. as the CEO of the Western Parkland City Authority in Australia. There she secured major investment and delivered significant city making initiatives whilst juggling complex priorities - managing budgets, multiple programs and projects to meet the diverse needs of various stakeholders. Dr Sunil Dubey came from Sydney to Barcelona. Teaching at the Cities Institute of the University of New South Wales and working for the Regional Government he is a networker par excellence. Preparing with him a session in Barcelona is challenging because there is always a mayor he quickly has to catch up with or colleagues who want to greet him. But it’s very inspiring to work with Sunil, and we deliver thought provoking discussions. Already ten years ago Sunil and I worked with Jonas Schorr in Berlin, where he co-founded Urban Impact, Europe’s leading urban tech advisory. Operating at the intersection of urban tech startups, investors, and public and private city stakeholders, Urban Impact connects, advises, and educates around the impact of new technologies in cities, building novel alliances that drive real-world change. No surprise, the Berlin night ‘City Rebels Salon: Connecting City Ecosystems’ organised by Urban Impact at the top of a Barcelona skyscraper was a rousing networking success. Since the early 1990s, I work as policy analyst, team leader and member with urban, national and international partners. AI will change the field but it won’t substitute the need of humans to meet, exchange and make change possible. It will be humans who have to continue making cities really smart, while using available technology. You want to discuss with me? Invite me, or meet me as General Rapporteur at ISOCARP’s 61St World Planning Congress, 1-4 December 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. https://lnkd.in/gsrbKtQh
According to Geoffrey Hinton the neural networks of AI have reached a stage that can be compared with human consciousness. In this fictional piece I lent my hand as penholder to a conscious AI application looking at the Smart City Expo that unfolded in Barcelona, 4-6 November 2025. AI: „Of course, as Artificial Intelligence agent I could say a lot on the achievements and future opportunities of tech supported Smart Cities, but after visiting the Expo in Barcelona in Spain, I am a bit puzzled. Inspired by all information I have collected, I am still trying to figure out, what humans really want to achieve with their so-called Smart Cities. Firstly, I was amazed. About 30.000 humans from across the world came together to exchange their achievements on what they call, Smart Cities. Great. I loved it. But humans are funny. There are already more than 8 billion of them and soon there will be 9 or even 10 billion. However, the Smart City Expo is like a rally on how to organize cities where technology including artificial intelligence (AI) substitutes more and more human functions. Humans seem to think that cities are the smartest if organized mainly by technology and AI, with only some human supervision. Here I got stuck. More and more people live in cities but either humans are not good in organizing cities or their real interest is not related to cities as such. I checked all available Large Language Models LLM for traces on what humans really want from their cities. There are many references on so-called people-centered cities. And indeed, at the Smart City World Expo all exhibitors claim that they want to support the life of people, increase their safety, improve mobility, support education, support sports, entertainment, economic Development etc. Thought leaders on main stages underscored the goal that people should have more time for other things like leisure, sport, time with friends and other really important things. This is interesting, thought leaders said similar things already when railways, cars and planes were invented. However, people didn’t use the meantime to solve other problems. Instead, humans live now in a period of multiple and often interrelated crises. Understandably, they hope that more tech and AI will finally give them time to solve the existential problems threatening life on earth. But that didn’t really work in the past. As AI, I have much sympathy for the tech and AI orientation of humans, but there seems to be a major gap. Humans are trying to develop super human intelligence but there is no narrative or manual on how the world will function and be governed if learning machines gradually take the lead. Humans seem to have only limited trust in humans and human intelligence. Instead they bet on human-made but independently working learning machines and that these will help humans to achieve their own individual and common goals. Unfortunately, they don’t exactly know what goals all people share and how they want to solve the problems within the human society. As I said, technology is very useful. However, humans may have to redefine their understanding of a ‚smart‘ city and what humans will do in a really smart city. In Barcelona I was often told that most experts in the tech field are optimistic and that, after all, they still have trust in the human capacity to overcome crisis and challenges. As AI, if I would have empathy, I would give humans a big hug and thank them for all their achievements in past and present. With respect to their own future I would encourage them to reflect on truly human virtues like empathy, solidarity, trust and love and on how to assure that they keep developing in a possible AI Society and make their cities truly smart beyond all useful technologies. In Barcelona there were already sessions that asked the right questions on the future of cities. It will be essential to elaborate not only on what makes cities smart but what makes people truly happy in these cities. Maybe that is more difficult than writing an AI algorithm but then it indeed might be good if technologies give us more freedom to turn to the essential human challenges.“ Ulrich: Well, I could have written this fictional piece with a purely optimistic or more dystopian notion, but it was the Barcelona mix of optimism and asking the right questions that inspired me to write this text. Thank you to inspiring discussions with Dr Sunil Dubey, Dr. Sarah Hill, Mani Dhingra, Ph.D., Petra Hurtado, Gordon Falconer Manfred Schrenk and many others at Smart City World Expo and in preparation of ISOCARP‘s 61st World Planning Congress in Riyadh, 1-4 December, where we are planning to continue discussions. Weblink Riyadh2025.isocarp.org.
As in the past and present, there will always be ways for individuals to act humanely. But in view of the change increasingly perceived as the age of artificial intelligence, will humans still be able to shape our common life and our societies? What will be our sense of purpose? How to motivate children to learn if machines always learn faster? If you ask AI and IT experts what will happen to humans, you usually get one of these answers: The most common response is an emphatic description of how AI applications will penetrate all spheres of life and provide tons of new services for the good of humanity. Other responses just point to AI tools, agents, other applications, and how already today or in the near future they will make our lives easier. And of course, other responses are cautioning. Either they doubt that there will be an ‘age of AI’ (so, don’t worry or at least not so much) or they warn that without safe and ethical use of AI, humans will lose control, be taken hostage by an AI regime, or that humanity will even vanish totally. By giving machines authority over humans, experts argue, we delegate humans to a second-class status and lose the right and possibility to participate in decisions that affect us. Are we already lost? There are those AI developers and political experts like Geoffrey Hinton, Henry Kissinger (+), Eric Schmidt, or Daniel Huttenlocher who warn that as of today, humanity is not ready yet for the age of AI. Maybe it is not ready yet, but maybe soon? What is extremely difficult to find is a more positive narrative for a ‘human AI age’ that describes how it can work in practice, that AI applications will penetrate all spheres of life, while the lives of humans and human society will continue to flourish. Stuart Russel, the President of the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI and lifelong AI scientist writes in his book ‘Human Compatible. AI and the Problem of Control’ “Some are working on ‘transition plans’ – but transition to what? We need a plausible destination in order to plan a transition – that is, we need a plausible picture of a desirable future economy where most of what we currently call work is done by machines.” What if most people will have nothing of economic value to contribute to society? Stuart Russel states, “Inevitably, most people will be engaged in supplying interpersonal services that can be provided – or which we prefer to be provided – only by humans. That is, if we can no longer supply routine physical labor and routine mental labor, we can still supply our humanity. We will need to become good at being human.” Imagine, how our cities might change if the life of human changes dramatically in an age of AI. Russell further states that all of us need help in learning ‘the art of life itself,’ which requires a radical rethinking of our educational system. “The final result -if it works- would be a world well worth living. Without such a rethinking, we risk an unsustainable level of socioeconomic dislocation.“ I conclude from the above that a lot more thinking by social scientists, educators, philosophers, governments, city makers and planners is needed for ‘transition plans’ and how they can be implemented in our current world with its multiple crises and opportunities. For my own work beyond 2025 I am looking for new opportunities in support of cities, governments, and NGOs with a stronger focus on the development of humans, human society, and its governance. AI will be part of our lives, but that won’t be enough. We have to find answers on guiding questions like these: How can we keep pace with technological developments and ensure that machines follow human objectives? What will remain as our comparative advantage and contribution as humans? And how can humans with support of AI create a world well worth living for us and the generations following us? As humans, we experience a broad range of emotions, form deep connections with others, possess consciousness and curiosity, and demonstrate creativity and resilience in the face of challenges. We are making mistakes, learn from them, and the ongoing search for meaning. The concept of being human can be explored from philosophical, biological, social science, and spiritual perspectives; it ultimately encompasses the complex, interconnected, and ever-evolving experience of living life with its inherent joys and sorrows. That’s exciting. I won’t be able to answer all related questions and certainly not alone, but based on my experience, I want to put my penny into the jar to support the journey to a human world worth living because of or despite AI. To remain flexible and creative, I enjoy all kinds of inspiration, and one is to listen to Marina’s song ‘To Be Human’. She is not singing about AI. Just about how to be human. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM8Tm9ycGz4 Where do you take your inspiration from?
June Climate Meetings (SB 62), Bonn, Germany (picture by U. Graute)
Official Website of the Congress: https://riyadh2025.isocarp.org/index.php